The Empty Boat

Analysis: What Most Likely Happened

1. Who they were

The clippings cover three men who disappeared together:

• John Ostrosky, 33. Tampa city patrolman. 2734 Main St., West Tampa. Wife Mrs. John Ostrosky; daughter Sandra Lee, 7.
• Ray R. Harrell (records: Rupert Ray Harrell, b. 17 Mar 1916, Arkansas), 39. Mechanic at Holtsinger Motor Co. 2735 Leroy St. Wife Mrs. Ray R. Harrell; daughter Christina, 9. Police described him as "an experienced skin diver".
• James A. "Jimmy" McFerren, age not given. Long-distance truck driver and WWII Army MP in Italy. 2740 Leroy St. Married 14 years to a Julian/Julien daughter; no children. He owned the boat and was the only one of the three who could not swim.

John Ostrosky and Rupert Ray Harrell were brothers-in-law. Their wives were the Abreu sisters Margarita "Margaret" (Abreu) Ostrosky (b. 17 Dec 1921, Havana; d. 26 Jun 2000) and Enelina A. "Nina" (Abreu) Harrell (c. 1912 – 5 Mar 2008). Det. Reinaldo "Ray" Abreu (b. 6 Sep 1916, Tampa; d. 22 Jul 1994) and Armando Abreu (b. 29 Nov 1918, Tampa; d. Apr. 1983) were their brothers, and Alfredo Abreu and Emelina Enriquez were their parents. In 1945 all four of those adults, plus both husbands, were listed at 2734 Main. McFerren's brothers-in-law were Nick and John Julian. Details and sources are in section 8.

2. Documented timeline (all from the clippings unless noted)

• Sun. Jan. 29, 1956, early morning: the three neighbors leave from the Ozona docks (Pinellas County) in McFerren's 16-ft light-green boat with a 30-hp Evinrude. They plan to be back "by noon" or "about 2 P.M."
• Weather that day: Coast Guard: "ideal", light winds, "almost glassy". Lt. Paul Smith: calm enough "to read the label of a beer can". NOAA daily records (GHCN-Daily): Tampa Int'l Airport 0.00 in. rain, high 77°F / low 53°F, no fog flag on Jan. 29. Tarpon Springs station: 0.00 in., 76/48°F. Fog flags appear at Tampa on Jan. 30, 31 and Feb. 1, which matches the reports that fog stopped the search.
• About 2:30 p.m.: the Tarpon Springs party boat St. Nicholas (Capt. George Billiris) finds the boat empty, roughly 8–10 miles off Anclote Key / 10 miles west of Tarpon Springs, in 36–42 ft of water. The motor is not running and is reportedly "still in gear". Two or three rods are aboard with baited lines over the side, three wrapped lunches are unopened under a seat, and the spare gas can and an anchor with a long line are still aboard. The ~10-ft bow tie line is dangling in the water.
• Same afternoon: a small fishing craft recovers Harrell's jacket (laundry mark "Harrell") floating near the boat. A Coast Guard helicopter is overhead within an hour of the report and sees no other vessel.
• Sun. night: Det. Abreu, his brother Armando and Nick Julian search Anclote Key by spotlight in thick fog.
• Mon. Jan. 30: a large search (CG helicopters, Grumman Albatross, crash boat, Hillsborough and Pinellas departments). An inflated life preserver is found drifting in the area. Fog halts the search at dark.
• Tue. Jan. 31: fog until about noon. The CG scales back to checks during training flights, and family parties keep searching.
• About Feb. 1: an unidentified body found at Indian Rocks is determined not to be one of the men.
• Through about Feb. 5: the Tampa clippings say the Coast Guard searches for about a week, "hundreds of miles" north and south, then ends. Relatives keep searching with boats and an airplane. The Times of Feb. 1 says a relatives' search had failed and that planes would keep looking on training flights. The Times of Feb. 13 says Abreu was still searching and Coast Guardsmen were still scanning.
• Early to mid-February: rumors (alive on an island, suicide, shanghaied, enemy submarine, throats cut). All were checked by the CG, the Pinellas sheriff and Tarpon Springs police, and dismissed.
• About late Feb. / early Mar., and again about March 21: an anonymous caller tells the Tribune he saw a grey 30-ft vessel come alongside and heard shots, then hangs up. A day or two later the Julians report gray paint flecks on the gunwale. Police note there are at least 3,000 gray boats in the area. An "arm" off Dunedin turns out to be a shirt. The Times of March 22 says an anonymous call sent Abreu back to the boat, that he found gray paint on the bow, and that dock operator Earnest Vidal said the paint matched the St. Nicholas.
• No bodies or further wreckage are mentioned in the scrapbook or in the St. Petersburg and wire stories through March 22. A search of the same Google Books newspaper set from March 23 through the end of 1956 returned no further stories under these names. The Times of Feb. 13 says Abreu denied a Tampa report that the bodies had been found with hands bound and throats — the column ends on that word.

3. Conflicts within the record

• Date: the later articles say "Feb. 10" and "Feb. 11". The early articles and the Rumors piece say Sunday, Jan. 29. Jan. 29, 1956 was a Sunday, so the later dates are errors. Google Books dates one Ocala issue Jan. 29 and a Times-News issue Jan. 26. The Ocala wording ("yesterday" and "Sunday") fits Jan. 30, and the Times-News story is datelined Jan. 31. Those index dates are not used.
• Jacket: "Harrell" laundry mark (Jan. 30; Rumors) versus "Ostrosky's jacket" (Kidnap article). The laundry mark is the more specific evidence.
• Rods: two (Jan. 30) versus three (Jan. 31, Feb.).
• Motor: "still in gear" when found (Jan. 31). Abreu said it had been "jammed in low gear before the fishing trip" and the men meant to fix it themselves. Julian said it was in "perfect running order", "can start only in neutral", and ran all day in the search the next day.
• Rescue boat: "St. Nicholas", "St. Nicholas II" and "St. Nicholas VI".
• Whose boat: "the policeman's" (Jan. 30 Tribune) and "owner of the craft" (Herald-Tribune, Times-News) versus McFerren's (Tribune, Jan. 31 and later). The Times of March 22 says "the boat used by his brother-in-law," then names all three men.
• Length: 16 feet in the Tampa clips, the Herald, the Times-News, and the Times of Feb. 13 and March 22. The Times of Jan. 31 says 18 feet.
• How far out: about eight miles (Tribune, Times of Jan. 31 and Feb. 1, the Journal and Ocala wires) versus about 12 miles (Herald-Tribune). The Jan. 31 Times also says a jacket and a rubber life jacket were found about 14 miles off the key.
• Where: Anclote Key or off Tarpon Springs in the Tampa clips and in the Times of Jan. 31 and Feb. 1. Egmont Key, both as the destination and as the find, only in the Times of Feb. 13.
• Ostrosky's job, in the Times of Jan. 31 only: "Tampa motorcycle policeman and father of one child." The Tribune calls him a city patrolman. The Feb. 13 Times prints "Patrolman John Ostrosky, 33, rookie Tampa policeman Ray Harrell" with no comma between "policeman" and "Ray."
• The sea that Sunday: Coast Guard officers in the Tampa clips say ideal, light winds, almost glassy. The Times of Feb. 13 says choppy. On March 22, dock operator Earnest Vidal says he warned them it was too rough, and that a 30-horsepower motor went into a high-speed spin.
• The gray paint: the Tribune says flecks on the gunwale, reported by the Julians, and notes 3,000 gray boats. The Times of March 22 says specks on the bow, found by Abreu, and quotes Vidal saying the color matched the St. Nicholas, which towed the empty boat to Tarpon Springs.

4. The explanations, weighed

A. Accidental fall overboard and drowning (most likely)

Evidence for:

• The boat was found intact and upright with nothing taken: rods, lunches, spare gas and anchor were all aboard.
• Baited lines over the side mean they were drifting and fishing, not under way.
• The lunches were unopened, so whatever happened came before they stopped to eat, probably in the late morning.
• A personal item (Harrell's jacket) and an inflated life preserver were floating near the boat. This is what you expect when people go into the water.
• 36–42 ft of open water about 10 miles offshore.
• Late-January Gulf water is around 61–62°F (NOAA NCEI long-term January average for Clearwater Beach: 61.5°F). A U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliary hypothermia table gives 30–40 minutes to loss of dexterity and 2–7 hours to unconsciousness at 60–70°F. Winter clothing and boots make swimming much harder.
• McFerren could not swim. A common pattern in multi-fatality small-boat accidents is that one person falls in and the others go in to help, or the whole party is pitched out by a surge or a lurch.
• Even "light winds" move an empty 16-ft boat faster than a tired swimmer. The ~10-ft bow line trailing in the water fits someone grabbing for it, or it simply washing over the side.
• Every professional on the scene favored this explanation: Capt. Billiris, the Coast Guard, and Detective Abreu, a policeman and family member who "believes the men have been drowned".

Evidence against or open questions: the sea was glassy, so there was no obvious wave to throw them out. Julian says the motor could only start in neutral, which argues against a sudden-start surge. But "still in gear" when found, plus Abreu's statement about the gear problem, keep a gear or motor mishap plausible. Bodies were never reported found. Lt. Smith said bodies "usually" surface in about a week, but in cool winter water decomposition, and with it resurfacing, is slower, and bodies 10 miles offshore can be carried away by currents or lost to scavengers. Open-Gulf losses with no remains recovered do happen. For example, the two men lost from the "Miss Black Diamond" off Tarpon Springs in 1994 were never found (Patch / NamUs listing).

B. Foul play (a boat coming alongside, shots, kidnapping): unlikely

For: the anonymous call and the gray paint flecks.

Against:

• The caller was anonymous, came forward more than a month later, gave the date wrong, said he was "leaving the state", hung up, and never came back.
• A Coast Guard helicopter searched within an hour of the report and saw no other vessel.
• Nothing was stolen.
• None of the three men had any known motive against them in the record.
• Paint marks on a gunwale could easily come from the rescue boat that found it, from towing, from the dock, or from family boats used in the search. The boat was handled and used for "all day" searching after it was found, and the marks were reported a month later. The Times of March 22 quotes Ozona dock operator Earnest Vidal saying just that: the specks matched the hull of the St. Nicholas, which he said towed the boat in on January 29. That story
• Three thousand gray boats.
• Authorities checked and found nothing.

A policeman among the three gives some theoretical motive for revenge, but nothing in the record points that way.

C. Went ashore / voluntary disappearance: very unlikely

Islands and Anclote Key were searched the same night and the next day. Three family men (two with young daughters) vanishing on purpose together, leaving a jacket and life preserver floating, makes no sense. The families couldn't collect insurance, so there was no payout motive at the time either.

D. Shanghai, submarine, suicide pact, fight: no evidence

All were dismissed at the time. The friends called the men "best of friends".

5. Assessment

Most likely outcome: the three men were accidentally pitched or fell into the 61°F Gulf while drift-fishing late Sunday morning, Jan. 29, 1956, about 8–10 miles west of Anclote Key. The boat then drifted out of their reach and they drowned or succumbed to cold within hours. One possible trigger is a mishap with a motor that had a known gear problem. Another is one man going over and the others going in after him, especially since McFerren couldn't swim. Their bodies were never recovered.

Confidence: about 80–85% for an accidental drowning of this general kind. About 5–10% for foul play (it can't be fully excluded because the bodies were never found and the gray-boat report was never resolved). About 5% for everything else.

What would change this: recovery records (any remains found along the Pinellas/Pasco coast in Feb.–Apr. 1956), the Coast Guard case file, the Pinellas sheriff's follow-up on the gray-boat call, or later probate/presumptive-death filings (in Florida a person absent seven years could be presumed dead, so watch for about 1963).

6. What I couldn't find online

No Find a Grave memorial turned up in the searches that could be run (the site blocks automated access), and no police-memorial listing turned up either. Census, marriage, draft and obituary records did (section 8). The St. Petersburg Times and several wire stories for January through March 22, 1956, are transcribed from Google Books scans on the Clippings page. The Tampa Tribune and Tampa Times beyond the scrapbook are still not in that free set. They are on newspapers.com. The open questions are below.

7. What the records still don't show

1. Alfredo Jr. ("Al"). The 1930 census lists him at 15, born in Cuba. He is out of the household by 1940 and is not at 2734 Main in 1945. A 2012 genealogical compilation gives his full name as Alfredo Augusto Jesus Abreu, born May 5, 1914, in Havana, married in 1939 to Vivian Inez Burleson, and died in Tampa in November 1986. The May 1914 date fits an age of 15 on April 1, 1930. A Tampa Tribune notice of October 23, 1990, for Vivian Burleson Abreu, 70, who died October 20, matches the compilation's dates for her, but the notice does not name her husband. No death certificate for Al was found.
2. Birthplaces that the records already settle. Margarita is Havana in the Social Security index and Cuba in four censuses. A 2012 entry said Tampa. Nina is Florida in four censuses, and that same entry says Tampa, about 1913. No record used here puts Nina's birth in Cuba.
3. John Ostrosky was born in Coaldale, Pa., a few miles from Summit Hill (draft card). The VA burial index lists a marker there. Whether a stone is still standing, and who arranged it, is not in these sources.
4. Was there a court declaration of death (possibly about 1956–1963), an insurance settlement, or a memorial service in Tampa?
5. Why did Rupert Ray Harrell and Nina marry on a license issued in Florence, S.C., in January 1944? Was he stationed there? The 1945 census already has him in Tampa, listed as Army. Christina was born in Missouri about 1946–47. The dates of any Missouri stay after the war are not in the records used here.
6. What happened to the boat afterward? The Times of March 22 says the St. Nicholas towed it to Tarpon Springs on January 29. The Tampa clips say the families used it to search the next day. Nothing later says where it went.
7. The 1965 scrapbook page (Tony Alfano, Luella Marlow, an "In Remembrance" card) does not mention the three men. How those items came to be kept with the 1956 clippings is not explained by the page itself.
8. The gear problem Det. Abreu described, and the anonymous call about a gray boat, are in the papers. No later official file was found that closes either one.

8. The people in the records

Margarita "Margaret" (Abreu) Ostrosky. Documented: born 17 Dec 1921 in Habana (Havana), Cuba, daughter of Alfredo Abreu and Emelina Enriquez. Died 26 Jun 2000, ZIP 33607, still named Ostrosky (Social Security claims index via SortedByName, Ostrosky page 6). In the 1950 census (Tampa, ED 72-61, sheet 71, enumerated Apr. 3, 1950, house no. 2734, the same number as the 1956 Main St. address) she is 28, married, born Cuba. She lives in the household of her widowed mother Emelina Abreu (58, born Cuba, cigar maker in a cigar factory), with her brother Armando (30, single, born Fla., restaurant proprietor), her husband John Ostrosky (27, born Pennsylvania, truck driver for a retail store; parents born Russia; completed 12th grade) and their daughter Sandra Lee (1, born Fla.). Inference: no remarriage. Every record found uses Ostrosky. Confidence that this is the right woman: very high (about 98%).

Enelina A. "Nina" (Abreu) Harrell. Name: her brother's 1994 obituary spells her Enelina A. Harrell. Her 2008 obituary spells it "Emelina," and the 1950 census "Emilina." Documented: obituary, Tampa Bay Times/TBO.com, Mar. 12, 2008: "HARRELL, Emelina Abreu 'Nina,' 95, of Tampa, died March 5, 2008." Daughter of Emelina Enriquez Abreu and "Alfrado" Abreu. Survived by a daughter, Christine, two grandchildren and two great-grandchildren. Siblings listed: Al Abreu, Ray Abreu, Armondo Abreu, Margaret Ostrosky. Three of those four had died before 2008, so the list names siblings, not survivors. 1950 census (Tampa, ED 72-60, sheet 5, Apr. 1, 1950, house 2010, street apparently "Howard"): Ray Harrell, head, 34, born "Missouri" (other records: Arkansas), soap maker at a soap/cleaning company; Emilina, wife, 37, born Florida; Christena, child, 3, born Missouri. Inference: this is the right Harrell household. Name, ages, the daughter, the wife's name and the neighborhood all fit, though no record states it outright: about 90% (raised to about 97% by the 1944 Harrell–Abreu marriage license; see section 9). No remarriage was found; she was still Harrell in 2008. Four censuses say Florida, and a 2012 genealogical entry says Tampa. No immigration record putting her birth in Cuba was found.

The daughters in 1956. Sandra Lee Ostrosky was about 1 in the April 1950 census (born Florida) and 7 in February 1956. Christina Harrell was 3 in April 1950 (born Missouri; her father had lived in Dunklin County) and 9 in February 1956. Nina's 2008 obituary names a daughter, Christine. Later lives are not followed here.

John Ostrosky. Documented: a VA burial index (via SortedByName, Ostrosky page 5) lists John Ostrosky, S/Sgt., U.S. Army Air Forces, WWII, b. 12 Jun 1922, d. 29 Jan 1956, at St. Mary Russian Orthodox Cemetery, Summit Hill, Pa. Inference (about 95%): this is the patrolman. The death date is the day of the disappearance, and the birth year, Pennsylvania birthplace and Russian parentage all match the 1950 census. Since his body was never recovered, the grave is almost certainly a memorial marker. It also shows the government accepted Jan. 29, 1956 as his date of death.

Rupert Ray Harrell. The 1950 census says born Missouri about 1915–16, but the FamilySearch records below give b. 17 Mar 1916, Casey, Arkansas. See section 9.

Reinaldo "Ray" Abreu. 1950 census, ED 72-57: "Abrew, Reinaldo," head, 33, married, born Fla., detective, city police; wife Joan, 23, born Ohio. The Social Security index gives the same parents as Nina's obituary. Confirmed as the detective in the clippings. His obituary (St. Petersburg Times, "Hillsborough Obituaries," July 26, 1994) calls him a detective for the Hillsborough County Sheriff's Office and a member of the West Tampa Optimist Club and St. John Presbyterian Church. Survivors included his wife, Joan, and his sisters Enelina A. Harrell and Margaret A. Ostrosky, both of Tampa. The notice also names two daughters and three grandchildren, not repeated here. It confirms that Nina and Margaret were his sisters and were still using their married names in 1994. It names no parents and no brothers. Al is not listed, which fits the 1986 death date in the 2012 compilation.

Legal declaration of death: none found online. Hillsborough County probate (about 1956–63) would need an in-person or clerk request.

Effect on the analysis: none on what happened at sea. The 1945 census does change the background. A year after the weddings, both missing men were Army, living with the detective who would search for them, who was already listed as Police. The VA death date of Jan. 29, 1956 is consistent with an official finding that John died that day. It fits the accidental-drowning conclusion. It is not independent evidence of how he died.

9. FamilySearch records

Abreu parents. Documented: Alfredo "Angel" Abreu, b. 31 May 1890, Vereda Nueva, Cuba; son of Valentin Abreu and Margarita Leon. Naturalized 9 Sep 1940 (65F4-7M7J). Died 12 Feb 1950, Tampa (funeral 6KWC-KS4Q, 6K4M-1N9K; NUMIDENT 6KS5-Y3MV; Florida death index VVVQ-W2R). Buried Martí-Colón Cemetery (Find a Grave index QVV3-HB19). His death in Feb. 1950 explains why Emelina is "widowed" in the April 1950 census. Emelina (Enriquez) Abreu, b. 12 Mar 1892, Havana; daughter of Damian Enriquez and Natalia Placeres; d. 20 Sep 1967, Tampa (funeral record, SSDI, Florida death index; 1950 census 6X29-449C; 1945 Florida census MNXF-3GY). The funeral-record ark was supplied incomplete ("JYZC-9ZQ?"), so it isn't linked.

Five Abreu children. Documented: 1930 census, Tampa (STWH-R3Z, indexed "Abreno"): Alfredo 40, Cuba; Emelina 38, Cuba; Emelina 17, Fla.; Alfredo Jr. 15, Cuba; Reinaldo 13, Fla.; Armando 11, Fla.; Margaret 8, Cuba. 1940 census, Tampa ED 70-35 (VTZK-FHV, "Abrieu"): Alfredo 50, Emelina 48, Emelina 27 (Fla.), Armando 21, Margaret 18 (Cuba); same residence in 1935. Inference (high): "Al Abreu" in Nina's 2008 obituary is Alfredo Jr. Nina's birthplace is Florida in 1930, 1940 and 1950, and again in 1945. A 2012 entry says Tampa, not Cuba.

Weddings (1944). Documented: South Carolina marriage license, 10 Jan 1944, Florence, S.C.: Rupert Ray Harrell, 27, and Emeline Abreu, 29 (ZXYJ-1P3Z; duplicate ZXB9-4BN2). John Ostrosky and Margarita Abreu married 30 Jun 1944, Hillsborough Co., Fla., p. 301 (23HL-JLC; duplicate 2341-2K8, mis-indexed "Florida City, Dade").

Rupert Ray Harrell. Documented: WWII draft card (QLX1-F21N): b. 17 Mar 1916, Casey (indexed "Casey/Cass"), Arkansas, residence White Oak, Dunklin Co., Mo., contact Lawson Fielder Harrell. 1920 census, Pope Co., Ark., parents Lawson and Bessie (MDFW-RKK); 1930, Wilson, Yell Co., Ark. (XMGT-ZGY). A U.S. military separation record is indexed (Q2Q4-6B4Z; details not reviewed). SSDI (J1RX-G4W) gives death Jan. 1956; NUMIDENT 6KWH-RHB1. Inference (high, about 95%): this is the lost man. The name matches "Ray R.", the birth date fits age 39 in Jan. 1956, the 1944 marriage is to an Abreu, the SSDI death month matches, and his Missouri residence explains the 1950 census birthplace and Christina's birth. Correction: earlier versions of this report said he was born in Missouri.

John Ostrosky. Documented: WWII draft card (Q2SJ-M8MQ): b. 12 Jun 1922, Coaldale, Pa., contact Roman Ostrosky. 1930 census Coaldale (XH4R-71T): Roman 37 (Russia), Anna 37 (Poland); siblings Alex, Olga, Peter, Anna, George, Helen. 1940 Coaldale East Ward (KQ6H-W23, "Ostransky"): Roman, Anna; siblings Catherine, Peter, George, Alex. 1945 Florida state census (MNXF-3PM). Find a Grave index (QGVB-6ZJN): St. Mary's Russian Orthodox Cemetery, Summit Hill, d. 29 Jan 1956. A death in 2000 that turned up in the index belongs to Margaret, not John.

WWII service. John: draft-registered; VA index records S/Sgt., U.S. Army Air Forces (documented). Ray: draft-registered; separation record indexed; the 1945 census lists him as Army (branch and dates otherwise unknown).

Not used: passenger-list hits for Abreu names are unconfirmed and were left out.